Portfolio Growth Calculator 2026
Set your asset allocation across stocks, bonds, and cash, then project both nominal and inflation-adjusted growth over your time horizon. Built on long-term capital market assumptions from Vanguard and JP Morgan.
Last updated April 2026 · Sources: Vanguard 2024 Capital Markets Model, JP Morgan Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, S&P Dow Jones Indices
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Common allocation models
| Profile | Stocks | Bonds | Cash | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggressive (20s/30s) | 90% | 10% | 0% | 9.45% |
| Growth (40s) | 80% | 15% | 5% | 8.88% |
| Balanced (50s) | 60% | 35% | 5% | 7.78% |
| Conservative (60s) | 40% | 50% | 10% | 6.65% |
| Income (70s+) | 25% | 60% | 15% | 5.80% |
Frequently Asked Questions
What return should I assume for stocks long-term?
A reasonable nominal expected return for US stocks is around 7-10% annually based on long-run historical data and forward-looking estimates from Vanguard, JP Morgan, and Research Affiliates. After inflation (the long-term average is about 2.5-3%), real returns are roughly 5-7%. The 2025 calendar year delivered 16.39% for the S&P 500, well above average, which is normal — annual returns are highly volatile around the long-term mean.
How should I split my portfolio between stocks and bonds?
A common rule of thumb is your bond allocation equals your age, so a 30-year-old holds 30% bonds. A more aggressive variant is "120 minus age" which keeps stock allocation higher into retirement. Target-date funds automatically glide from 90/10 stocks/bonds in your twenties to roughly 50/50 at retirement and 30/70 by your eighties. The right answer depends on your time horizon, risk tolerance, and whether you have other income sources like a pension.
Why include any bonds in a long-term portfolio?
Bonds reduce volatility and provide cash for rebalancing during stock crashes. In 2008, stocks fell 37% while intermediate Treasuries gained about 5%, allowing investors to sell bonds high and buy stocks low. Bonds also smooth the emotional ride — many investors who try to hold 100% stocks panic-sell during bear markets, locking in losses and crushing their long-term returns. A 20% bond allocation typically captures most of the volatility reduction with only modest return giveup.
What is sequence of returns risk?
Sequence of returns risk is the danger that bad market years happen early in your retirement, when you are withdrawing from a large balance, rather than later. Two retirees with identical average returns can have wildly different outcomes if one experiences losses in years 1-5 versus years 25-30. This is why bond allocations typically increase as you approach retirement — to reduce the chance of a brutal early sequence destroying your plan.
How much should I contribute monthly to reach $1 million?
Starting from zero with no initial balance: $1 million at a 7% return requires roughly $880/month for 30 years, $1,700/month for 20 years, or $5,800/month for 10 years. Starting with $50,000 already invested cuts the 30-year requirement to about $530/month. The earlier you start, the more compounding does the work — every decade of delay roughly doubles the required monthly contribution.
Should I invest in target-date funds or build my own portfolio?
Target-date funds are an excellent default for most investors. They automatically rebalance and shift toward bonds as the target date approaches, removing the discipline burden. Building your own portfolio of 3-4 index funds (US stocks, international stocks, bonds, maybe a REIT) can save 0.05-0.20% in fees compared to a target-date fund. For accounts under $500K, the simplicity premium of target-date funds usually outweighs the fee savings.
How does inflation affect my projections?
A $1 million portfolio in 30 years sounds like a lot, but at 2.5% inflation, it has the purchasing power of about $477,000 in todays dollars. This calculator shows both nominal (raw future dollars) and real (inflation-adjusted) values so you can see the difference. Most long-term retirement planning should focus on the real number, not the nominal one, because what matters is what the money can actually buy.
What is the safe withdrawal rate from a portfolio?
The traditional answer is the 4% rule from the Trinity study — withdraw 4% of your starting portfolio in year one, then adjust that dollar amount for inflation each year. This has historically given a high probability of lasting 30 years. More recent research from Wade Pfau and Morningstar suggests 3.3-3.7% may be safer given lower expected future returns and longer retirements. A $1 million portfolio at 4% generates $40,000 per year in inflation-adjusted income.
How often should I rebalance my portfolio?
Annually is sufficient for most investors. Some prefer threshold rebalancing — only adjust when an asset class drifts more than 5 percentage points from target. The exact frequency matters less than actually doing it. Skipping rebalancing during a bull market means your stock allocation creeps higher, taking on more risk than you intended right before the eventual correction. Tax-advantaged accounts let you rebalance freely without triggering taxes.
Do international stocks belong in my portfolio?
Most financial planners suggest 20-40% of your stock allocation in international equities for diversification. International has underperformed US stocks for the past 15 years, leading some investors to abandon it, but historically the leadership rotates between regions. Vanguard Total International (VXUS) and iShares Core MSCI Total International (IXUS) are popular low-cost choices with expense ratios around 0.07-0.08%.
What expense ratio should I aim for?
Under 0.20% for index funds and ETFs is achievable today. Target under 0.10% for core US stock and bond funds — Vanguard, Schwab, Fidelity, and iShares all offer total market index funds at 0.03% or less. A 1% expense ratio might sound small, but over 30 years it consumes roughly 25% of your final portfolio value compared to a 0.05% fund. This is the single biggest controllable factor in long-term returns.
Should I include REITs or commodities in my allocation?
Both can add diversification but neither is essential. REITs (real estate investment trusts) have historically returned roughly the same as broad stocks but with different drivers, providing some diversification benefit. Commodities are volatile and have negative real returns over very long periods, but can help during inflation spikes. A typical "diversified" allocation might add 5-10% REITs to a stock/bond core. Most investors do fine with just stocks and bonds.
Sources: Vanguard 2024 Capital Markets Model 10-year projections, JP Morgan Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions 2025, S&P Dow Jones Indices, Trinity study (Cooley, Hubbard, Walz).
Disclaimer: Estimates only based on long-term capital market assumptions. Actual returns vary significantly year to year and decade to decade. Past performance does not guarantee future results.