Retirement Calculator
Find out if your savings will actually last through retirement. Uses the 4% rule, real Social Security estimates, and the gap analysis that shows exactly how much more you need to save each month if you are behind.
Last updated: April 2026 · Sources: Bengen 4% rule, Fidelity 2025 benchmarks, SSA average benefits
All retirement accounts combined (401k, IRA, etc.)
Include employer match if applicable
Avg 2026 SS benefit: ~$2,000/mo. Get yours at SSA.gov
How the 4% rule actually works
The 4% rule was developed by financial advisor William Bengen in 1994 and remains the most widely used retirement withdrawal benchmark. The rule is simple: in the first year of retirement, you can safely withdraw 4% of your portfolio. In each subsequent year, you adjust that dollar amount for inflation. Bengen\'s historical analysis showed this approach had a 95%+ success rate of lasting 30 years across all market conditions from 1926-1992.
The math, restated. If your annual expenses in retirement (above what Social Security covers) will be $40,000, you need 25 times that amount saved: $1,000,000. If you want $60,000/year from your savings, you need $1.5 million. If you want $100,000/year, you need $2.5 million. The "25x rule" and "4% rule" are mathematically identical (1 ÷ 4% = 25).
More recent research suggests the 4% rule may be slightly aggressive given current market valuations and longer life expectancies. Wade Pfau and Morningstar have suggested 3.3-3.7% as a more conservative starting point. The tradeoff is real: a 3.5% rule means you need 28.6x expenses (more savings, less spending), while 4% lets you spend more but with a slightly higher chance of running out. Pick what you can live with.
How much you need to retire (worked examples)
| Desired annual spend | From Social Security | From savings | Need saved (4% rule) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $40,000 | $24,000 | $16,000 | $400,000 |
| $60,000 | $24,000 | $36,000 | $900,000 |
| $80,000 | $30,000 | $50,000 | $1,250,000 |
| $100,000 | $30,000 | $70,000 | $1,750,000 |
| $150,000 | $36,000 | $114,000 | $2,850,000 |
Social Security estimates assume a couple at full retirement age. Single retirees should roughly halve the SS column. Higher-income retirees get higher SS but with diminishing returns due to bend points.
Three retirement planning scenarios
1. The 35-year-old on track
Sarah is 35, has $85,000 saved, contributes $800/month including her employer match, and earns 7% real returns. By age 67 she has roughly $1.34 million. The 4% rule lets her withdraw $53,500/year from her portfolio. With Social Security adding $24,000/year, her total retirement income is about $77,500/year. If she wanted $60,000/year, she would have a $17,500/year surplus. On track.
2. The 50-year-old behind
Mike is 50 with $120,000 saved, contributes $500/month, wants $70,000/year in retirement at age 67. His projected balance: about $385,000. The 4% rule supports $15,400/year from savings. Plus $24,000 Social Security = $39,400/year total. He wanted $70,000. Gap: $30,600/year. To close it, he needs to find $1,400 more per month to save, or work until age 72, or plan for a smaller retirement footprint. The math is harsh but actionable.
3. The early retiree (FIRE)
Priya wants to retire at 50 instead of 67. She has $200,000 saved at age 35 and saves $3,000/month aggressively. By age 50: about $1.18 million. She wants $50,000/year. The 4% rule says her balance supports $47,200/year. Close, but for a 40+ year retirement (50 to 90+), she should use a 3.3% rule instead, which would require $1.51 million — meaning she needs to either work 2-3 more years or cut her target spending by $5K/year. Early retirement requires a more conservative withdrawal rate because of the longer time horizon.
Common retirement planning mistakes
1. Underestimating life expectancy
The average 65-year-old today can expect to live to 84 (men) or 87 (women), but a quarter will live past 90. Plan for 30-35 years of retirement, not 20.
2. Ignoring inflation
At 3% inflation, $60,000 today becomes $108,000 in 20 years. Always model retirement projections in real (inflation-adjusted) terms or explicitly account for cost-of-living growth.
3. Overestimating Social Security
The average 2026 benefit is $2,000/month. The maximum at full retirement age is $4,018/month. Use your actual SSA.gov estimate, not assumptions.
4. Not accounting for healthcare costs
Fidelity estimates a 65-year-old couple retiring in 2025 will need about $315,000 for medical expenses in retirement, not including long-term care.
5. Stopping equity exposure too early
Going 100% bonds at retirement means inflation will erode your purchasing power. Most modern target-date funds keep 30-50% in equities even at age 70+.
6. Forgetting taxes on traditional IRA/401(k) withdrawals
If your retirement balance is in a traditional 401(k), you owe income tax on every withdrawal. A "$1 million" balance is really $750-$800K after taxes.
Frequently asked questions
How much money do I need to retire?
The most common rule of thumb is the "4% rule": you need 25 times your expected annual retirement expenses saved. If you want $60,000/year in retirement (in addition to Social Security), you need $1.5 million. Fidelity's simpler benchmark is 10 times your annual salary by age 67. On a $85,000 salary, that is $850,000. Both rules assume Social Security covers part of your needs and you live to about age 92. Run your specific numbers in the calculator above.
What is the 4% rule and is it still valid?
The 4% rule, developed by financial advisor William Bengen in 1994, says you can withdraw 4% of your retirement savings in the first year, then adjust that amount for inflation each subsequent year, with a 95%+ probability of your money lasting 30 years. It is based on historical US market returns 1926-1992. More recent research (Wade Pfau, Morningstar) suggests 3.3-3.7% may be safer for longer retirements or current market valuations. The 4% rule remains the most widely used retirement withdrawal benchmark, and it works as a useful planning baseline.
How much will Social Security pay me in retirement?
The average Social Security retirement benefit in 2026 is approximately $2,000/month for retired workers, or about $24,000/year. The maximum benefit at full retirement age (67 for most current workers) is around $4,018/month, but that requires 35 years of earning at or above the Social Security wage base. You can get an estimate of your specific benefit at SSA.gov by creating a my Social Security account, which uses your actual earnings record.
What is a safe withdrawal rate for retirement?
The classic 4% rule (Bengen 1994) is the most widely used. More conservative researchers like Wade Pfau suggest 3.3-3.7% given current market valuations and longer life expectancies. Morningstar's 2024 analysis recommended 4.0% as a starting point. The trade-off: a lower withdrawal rate means more money saved and less spending in retirement, but a higher safety margin. Most financial planners use 3.5-4.0% as their default assumption today.
How long will my retirement savings last?
It depends on your withdrawal rate, investment returns in retirement, and inflation. Using the 4% rule as a baseline, $1 million should reasonably last 30 years drawing $40,000/year (adjusted for inflation), assuming a balanced portfolio earning roughly 6% nominal in retirement. The calculator above shows your specific projection: it takes your projected balance, subtracts your annual income gap (after Social Security), and runs out the math to see if your money outlasts your life expectancy.
Should I plan for inflation in retirement?
Absolutely. At 3% annual inflation (the long-term US average), $60,000 today will need to be about $108,000 in 20 years just to maintain the same purchasing power. Most retirement calculators (including this one) project nominal balances and use a real return assumption (typically 4-7% real, which already accounts for inflation). When you set "annual return" at 7%, you are using a real return — meaning the projected balance is in today's dollars and already accounts for inflation.
What is "sequence of returns risk"?
It is the risk that bad market returns happen early in your retirement, when withdrawals do the most damage to your portfolio. Two retirees with identical 30-year average returns can end up with completely different outcomes if one experiences a bear market in years 1-5 and the other in years 26-30. The fix: keep 1-3 years of expenses in cash or short-term bonds when entering retirement, so you do not have to sell stocks at depressed prices during a downturn.
When can I start collecting Social Security?
You can claim Social Security as early as age 62, but your benefit is permanently reduced by about 30% compared to claiming at full retirement age (67 for most current workers). Waiting until age 70 increases your benefit by 8% per year for each year past full retirement age. Most financial planners recommend waiting as long as possible if you have other savings to bridge the gap, because the lifetime value of delayed Social Security is enormous for healthy retirees.
How does inflation affect retirement planning?
Inflation is the silent killer of retirement plans. At 3% inflation over 30 years, $1 today is worth about $0.41 — meaning your retirement income needs to roughly double over your retirement to maintain the same lifestyle. Social Security adjusts annually for inflation (COLA), but most pensions and fixed annuities do not. This is why most retirement plans assume continued investment in stocks during retirement — to keep pace with inflation rather than being eroded by it.
What if I am behind on retirement savings?
Three things help: (1) Save more aggressively. Even $200-500/month extra for 15-20 years compounds significantly. (2) Work longer. Each year you delay retirement is a year of additional savings AND one fewer year of withdrawals. Working until 70 vs 65 can roughly double your sustainable retirement income. (3) Plan for a smaller retirement footprint — downsizing housing, relocating to a lower cost-of-living area, or supplementing with part-time work. Retirement is not all-or-nothing; "partial retirement" is increasingly common.
Should I include my home equity in retirement planning?
It depends on whether you plan to tap it. If you intend to downsize, sell, or take a reverse mortgage in retirement, then yes — home equity is part of your wealth. If you plan to live in the home until death, it should not factor into your spending plan, though it remains a backstop. A common retirement strategy is to plan as if home equity is zero, then treat any eventual proceeds from downsizing as a bonus.
How does the calculator project my retirement balance?
The calculator runs a standard compound growth model: it takes your current savings, adds your monthly contributions, applies your expected annual return (default 7% real), and projects forward to your retirement age. Then it applies the 4% rule to determine sustainable annual income from the resulting balance, adds your Social Security estimate, and runs the drawdown phase to see how long the money lasts. The math is conservative-realistic — the actual return depends on market performance, which nobody can predict.
Data sources: Bengen (1994) original 4% rule research; Fidelity Investments Q4 2025 Retirement Analysis; Vanguard "How America Saves 2025" report; Social Security Administration 2026 benefit data; Wade Pfau retirement income research; Morningstar 2024 safe withdrawal rate analysis.
Last updated: April 2026. Calculator uses real (inflation-adjusted) returns by default. Switch to nominal projections by setting your return rate higher.
Disclaimer: This calculator provides estimates for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Retirement projections involve significant uncertainty around market returns, longevity, healthcare costs, and tax law changes. Consult a qualified financial planner for personalized retirement planning.